Ohio taxpayers and businesses could face significant financial burdens and a shrinking workforce due to a projected mass-deportation campaign. An Economic Policy Institute calculator, as reported by Axios, estimates that the average Ohio federal income-tax filer who owes tax after credits would shoulder about $1,670 to finance such efforts.
Ohio’s share of the projected $268.9 billion federal cost is nearly $6.9 billion through the remainder of the presidential term. This amount represents an allocation of projected federal spending, not a new direct charge on an Ohio tax return. However, the source material indicates Ohioans will bear additional costs if enforcement removes workers, destabilizing families, businesses, and the state's tax base.
The administration states its enforcement targets the “worst of the worst.” However, a review of federal records found that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detained 7,756 people in Ohio between January 2025 and March 2026. Less than 5% of those detained had been convicted of a violent offense, while 47% had no criminal history. Some detainees had pending charges or nonviolent convictions, including traffic-related offenses such as driving without a license, suggesting a broader reach than a narrowly targeted public-safety operation. Detention, while not immediate deportation, often becomes the route to removal, according to a Deportation Data Project analysis.
Ohio's economy already depends significantly on immigrants across various sectors. A May 2026 OhioMeansJobs snapshot listed 126,739 online job postings, including 4,596 for registered nurses, illustrating ongoing employer demand for workers. According to an American Immigration Council analysis, immigrants comprise 15.7% of personal-care aides, 9.1% of transportation and warehousing workers, 7.6% of manufacturing workers, 6.9% of agricultural workers, and 6.2% of construction workers. Overall, immigrants make up 6.2% of Ohio’s workforce.
Removing or stripping work authorization from even a fraction of these workers can lead to longer waits for home care, delayed construction and production, higher business costs, and increased prices for consumers. Furthermore, a 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research working paper found that for every six likely undocumented men who lost employment after increased ICE activity, one U.S.-born man without a college degree also lost employment. When employers struggle to find workers, they may cut production, decline new work, or choose to expand in areas where labor is more readily available.
Immigrant households also contribute substantially to Ohio's public finances. In 2023, they paid $7.3 billion in federal, state, and local taxes and retained $20 billion in spending power, as reported by the American Immigration Council. Beyond their workforce contributions, immigrant entrepreneurs are a significant economic asset. More than 38,200 immigrant entrepreneurs, representing 8.2% of Ohio’s entrepreneurs, generated $1 billion in business income in 2023. These entrepreneurs create jobs, fill storefronts, and strengthen local tax bases.
Ohio’s population trends highlight the need for residents. JobsOhio’s summary of new Census estimates indicates the state added 101,065 residents since 2020, with net migration contributing 146,471. Despite overall growth, Census estimates placed Cleveland’s 2025 population at 363,608, a 2.4% decrease from its 2020 base. Older cities and rural communities particularly need residents to occupy homes, support schools, and sustain local businesses.
The source material suggests that current state strategies appear contradictory. JobsOhio, for instance, offers up to $15,000 for each qualifying out-of-state STEM or technical hire above an employer’s three-year baseline. The source argues that paying companies to recruit workers while simultaneously spending billions to drive other workers away does not constitute a coherent development strategy.
Ohio should invest in better wages, safer workplaces, and serious training for Ohioans. Gov. Mike DeWine has acknowledged that Ohio needs immigrants. The source material suggests that he and JobsOhio should state plainly that broad removal undermines Ohio’s workforce strategy. Additionally, the state’s congressional delegation should press for legal employment channels that match workforce needs, dependable seasonal-worker programs, and a workable legal-status process for long-settled residents without serious criminal records.
Ultimately, Ohio cannot recruit workers, attract investment, and repopulate communities while allocating nearly $6.9 billion to policies that could make itself smaller.
