A majority of Ohioans disapprove of President Donald Trump's performance, according to recent polling data, potentially influencing closely watched state-level elections. New polling indicates 57% of Ohioans disapprove of the President’s performance. This disapproval appears to be a factor for Republican candidates in Ohio's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests, who may be concerned about Trump making himself the face of the party.
A YouGov poll published last week further details this sentiment, showing 57% of Ohio likely voters disapprove of the job President Trump is doing. A significant 51% reported strong disapproval, with another 6% expressing somewhat unfavorable views. In contrast, 43% of respondents approved of his performance, split between 27% strongly approving and 16% somewhat approving. The survey included 3,780 likely voters and had a 2.5% margin of error. Most respondents identified as moderate or conservative, with 41% as Republicans, 33% as Democrats, and 22% as independent.
Reasons cited for this sentiment include persistently high consumer prices, linked to the President’s Iran war choking energy flows out of the Middle East, as well as sweeping tariffs. The President has also embraced several other measures described as highly unpopular, such as cutting rich people’s taxes, slashing Medicaid and federal food assistance, and advocating for Big Tech to have a free hand in developing artificial intelligence and building data centers.
Despite these polling numbers, President Trump is actively campaigning, aiming to make the Midterm elections about himself. He held a “Trump-a-Palooza” convention in Dallas in September and has recently hosted two separate rallies in Ohio. Controversially, President Trump also used $20 million in taxpayer money to air commercials about himself, including one his campaign had already paid to air in 2024.
In Ohio’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, maintains a lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican. The Silver Bulletin, public opinion expert Nate Silver’s poll aggregator, shows Brown ahead by 3.8 percentage points. Brown has held a narrow lead since late May, which began to widen in mid-August. Currently, Brown stands at 48% approval, while Husted is at 44.2%. Historically, political professionals aim for their candidates to reach 50% or better in polls, a mark Brown briefly achieved in June. The recent YouGov poll also showed Brown leading Husted 49% to 45%.
Similarly, Ohio’s Democratic candidate for governor, Amy Acton, is ahead of her Republican opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy, by four percentage points, with 48.5% to 44.5%. The candidates were essentially tied from mid-August to mid-September before Acton began to open her lead. The YouGov poll also indicated Acton with a 48% to 44% lead over Ramaswamy.
While Democratic candidates hold leads in these key races, voters express reservations about both major parties. The YouGov poll reported that 57% of respondents held a very or somewhat unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, and 55% held the same view of the Republican Party.
Nationally, independent election forecaster Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 76% chance of winning the U.S. House and a 56% chance of winning the U.S. Senate, despite what it describes as an unfavorable map for the latter body this year. Online prediction platform Polymarket offers even higher odds for Democrats, giving them an 89% chance of winning the House, a 60% chance of winning the Senate, and a 70% chance of controlling most governorships.
With early voting currently underway, Husted and Ramaswamy are still in contention, as some Ohioans remain undecided. Election Day is scheduled for Nov. 3. Military and overseas absentee voting, along with early in-person and mail voting, have already begun. The deadline to register to vote has passed.
