Lima, Ohio — In Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Jon Husted’s campaign is actively working to portray his Democratic challenger, Sherrod Brown, as the sitting senator, a strategy dubbed "Artificial Incumbency." This unusual approach comes as recent polling shows significant voter dissatisfaction with the direction of both Ohio and the country, according to the latest BGSU Poll.
The strategy attempts to cast the challenger, Brown, as the incumbent, despite Husted currently holding the U.S. Senate seat. This effort is in response to a political climate where 52% of likely voters believe Ohio is on the wrong track, and 61% feel the same about the country as a whole, according to the BGSU Poll. A Republican strategist in Ohio, who spoke to the New York Times on condition of anonymity, indicated that the Husted campaign is "intentionally casting Mr. Brown as the incumbent" to leverage public anger at the status quo amid unfavorable Republican approval ratings. Husted supporting advertisements even refer to Brown as “Senator Sherrod Brown.”
This dynamic is notable given the path Husted took to the Senate. In 2024, Sherrod Brown, a longtime Democratic U.S. Senator, lost a re-election bid to Republican Bernie Moreno. Separately, Ohio’s other U.S. Senator, Republican JD Vance, won the Vice Presidency. Governor Mike DeWine then appointed his Lieutenant Governor, Jon Husted, to fill the Senate seat vacated by Vance. Brown is now running in a special election to serve out the remainder of that term, which extends until 2028.
Historically, incumbent candidates often benefit from a significant advantage over challengers. However, with voter dissatisfaction currently high, there may be less benefit to being the incumbent, as voters might simply desire a change. Ohio Republicans have maintained control of the governorship and legislative trifecta for nearly four decades, specifically for all but seven years since 1992. The current widespread unhappiness among likely voters presents a challenge for the party in power.
The BGSU Poll reveals that approximately 25% of likely voters currently believe Sherrod Brown is the incumbent senator. This belief appears to be influenced by several factors. Voters with higher levels of education are generally more likely to correctly identify Husted as the current Senator. Interestingly, party identification does not appear to correlate with whether a voter believes Brown is the incumbent.
Further insights from the BGSU Poll indicate that Black and women likely voters are more prone to believing Brown is the incumbent. Conversely, members of union households are less likely to hold this belief. For voters who think Brown is the incumbent, their voting intentions differ slightly from the overall electorate. While 48.6% of likely voters overall state they plan to vote for Sherrod Brown, only 44.5% of those who mistakenly believe Brown is the incumbent say they will vote for him. Among this specific group, 43.3% indicate they plan to vote for Husted.
Additionally, those who believe Brown is the incumbent are marginally more likely to say they plan to support Libertarian, independent, or other candidates. While these percentages are small, they could become significant in a closely contested election.
The current political climate also features a strong populist message. The BGSU Poll shows low favorability ratings for various groups: only 14% of voters view "elite billionaires" favorably. Similarly, only 31% view Democrats in Congress favorably, and just 34% view Republicans in Congress favorably. This anti-elite sentiment suggests that the traditional advantage of incumbency might be diminished.
Ultimately, Ohio Republicans are grappling with a challenge as voters express unhappiness with the state’s direction after years of Republican control. Incumbent U.S. Senator Jon Husted’s campaign has employed the "Artificial Incumbency" strategy, creating the impression for about a quarter of likely voters that former Senator Sherrod Brown is still in office. These voters are slightly less inclined to support Brown. The true impact and effectiveness of this strategy will not be known until all votes are cast and counted.
