A new poll of Ohio registered voters, released last week by Marist University, suggests Democratic candidates hold leads in two key statewide races. Former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, shows an eight-point advantage over U.S. Senator Jon Husted, a Republican who was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine. In the contest for governor, Democrat Amy Acton is ahead by six points against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, according to the same survey.
This marks the first Ohio poll conducted by Marist University for the current election cycle. The university surveyed a total of 1,298 registered voters between September 24 and September 27. Opinions were gathered through a combination of phone calls, text messages, and internet responses. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
The leads identified in the Marist poll are notably higher than other recent averages. Sherrod Brown's eight-point lead, for instance, is significantly greater than the 3.7-point advantage indicated by the Real Clear Politics average for the U.S. Senate race. Similarly, Amy Acton's six-point lead in the gubernatorial contest exceeds the Real Clear Politics average, which places her ahead by four points.
Republicans in Ohio appear to be contending with a prevailing negative sentiment towards the President. A statement released alongside the Marist poll noted, "Ohio registered voters approach the midterm election cycle with a sour mood toward President Donald Trump and lean Democratic in the state’s marquee contests." The New York Times average indicates President Trump's approval at 37% nationally, though the Marist survey found him slightly more popular with Ohioans, who gave him a 42% approval rating.
A significant portion of Ohio voters surveyed, 41%, stated their vote in the upcoming midterm election would be a vote against President Trump. In contrast, 33% of voters reported that the President was not a major factor in their vote, while only 25% said they intended to vote in support of the President. This suggests a clear influence of national political figures on local races.
Economic conditions also play a role in voter sentiment, according to the poll. The same plurality of 41% who identified their midterm vote as a statement against President Trump also reported that their personal economic situation had worsened over the past year. Another 37% of respondents indicated their finances remained about the same, with just 19% stating their financial situation had improved.
Beyond national politics and economic concerns, a specific local issue—the public backlash against data centers—appears to be impacting Republican candidates. An August memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee highlighted how this backlash could jeopardize U.S. Senator Husted's chances. The memo asserted that data centers are "more than any other thing in this race, the anchor hanging around Husted’s neck." It also warned that if Husted were to lose due to this issue, politicians nationwide would take notice and avoid similar projects.
This issue may also contribute to the Democrats' three-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot in Ohio, as indicated by the Marist poll. Nationally, Real Clear Politics places the Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot at 8.5 points.
Looking ahead, Election Day is scheduled for November 3. Military and overseas absentee voting commenced on Thursday. The deadline for voter registration is October 5, with early in-person and mail-in voting in Ohio set to begin on October 6. Additional election calendar information is available from the Ohio Secretary of State.
